Q4 2025 Commodities Outlook: Why Waste Management Companies Hold the Hidden Key to America’s Supply Chain

The Storm Brewing in Global Markets

The last quarter of 2025 will be remembered as one of the most uncertain periods in modern commodity history.

Look around:

• The Israel–Hamas conflict continues to destabilize the Middle East, threatening oil routes and pushing insurance premiums on Red Sea shipments sky-high.
  
  

• The Ukraine war still impacts Europe’s gas markets, with LNG storage shortages making the entire continent vulnerable to price spikes.
  
  

• The U.S.–China rivalry has escalated into a full-blown tariff war. The U.S. has pushed duties on Chinese imports to 145%, while Beijing retaliated with 125% tariffs on American goods.
  
  

• Meanwhile, the BRICS alliance talks about a new economic order, while no real “BRICS currency” is in play—yet their political weight is growing.
  
  

• Add to this the China–Taiwan tensions and the U.S. push for reshoring critical supply chains, and you get a market landscape where volatility isn’t an exception—it’s the rule.
  
  

And here’s the hard truth: in this storm, waste management companies sit on the most undervalued treasure of all—secondary raw materials (SRMs).

Why Secondary Raw Materials Are America’s Lifeline

Traditionally, commodity markets have been driven by miners, refiners, and multinational corporations. But tariffs, wars, and geopolitical risk have broken the old model.

Now, every ton of copper, aluminum, cadmium, nickel, and rare earths that U.S. manufacturers need is under scrutiny. Importing these resources from China or unstable regions is no longer cost-effective—or politically viable.

That’s where you, the waste management operator, come in.

Recycling is no longer about “green” initiatives or compliance reports. It’s about supply chain survival. In fact:

• The U.S. has over 86 million tons of copper locked in buildings, infrastructure, vehicles, and electronics—the so-called urban mine.
  
  

• Aluminum recycling consumes just 5% of the energy needed for virgin aluminum production, making domestic scrap not only cheaper but tariff-proof.
  
  

• With 70% of U.S. steel already coming from scrap, the demand for domestic secondary steel is exploding.
  
  

Tariffs, wars, and shortages mean manufacturers are finally turning to waste companies not as garbage collectors—but as raw material suppliers.

Q4 2025 Commodity Outlook—Through the Waste Lens

Let’s break it down by key sectors:

1. Energy: Oil & Gas

Brent crude may hover in the mid-60s, but risk premiums from the Red Sea and Middle East conflicts will spike shipping costs.
Action for waste companies: Insert fuel surcharges and war-risk clauses in your contracts. Don’t eat the volatility—pass it on.

2. Copper

Banks forecast prices pushing $9,600–$10,700 per ton, with U.S. buyers paying a premium thanks to tariffs.
Action: Invest in sorting and certification. High-purity copper will command extraordinary premiums.

3. Aluminum

With tariffs raised from 10% to 25% on imports, domestic recyclers are in the driver’s seat.
Action: Focus on used beverage cans (UBCs) and clean alloy streams. Deliver consistent quality and lock multi-month contracts.

4. Precious Metals

Gold remains strong, driven by central bank buying and geopolitical risk. For waste operators, this means catalytic converters, circuit boards, and e-waste are hotter than ever.
Action: Shorten your sales cycle. Move PM-bearing fractions weekly, not monthly.

5. Rare Earths & Critical Minerals

China has tightened export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite, and rare earths, weaponizing its near-monopoly.
Action: Build relationships with U.S. magnet manufacturers and battery recyclers. Offer steady lots of recovered REEs to bypass export headaches.

Short-Term Plays for Q4 2025

Here’s what you can execute immediately to capture the market tailwinds:

1. Copper: Develop direct supply contracts with domestic wire and alloy producers. Offer COMEX-linked pricing plus a tariff-hedge clause.
   
   

2. Aluminum: Push UBC collection programs aggressively. Position your feedstock as tariff-free, energy-saving, and cost-predictable.
   
   

3. Steel: Market your scrap as part of the “Made in USA” reshoring boom. Highlight your role in strengthening supply chain security.
   
   

4. Precious Metals: Expand your catalytic converter and e-waste intake. Sell purity and speed.
   
   

5. Critical Minerals: Target electronics dismantling, magnets, and EV batteries. Bundle volumes into lots attractive for U.S. refiners.
   
   

Long-Term Moves Beyond 2025

Waste management isn’t just about catching today’s price spikes—it’s about positioning for the next decade.

• Invest in Secondary Smelting: With U.S. copper smelting capacity projected to expand by 280,000 tons, there’s room for companies that can deliver furnace-ready feedstock.
  
  

• Adopt AI & Robotics: Advanced sorting reduces contamination and boosts margins. Think machine vision for alloys and AI-grade classification.
  
  

• Urban Mining: Target the 86 million tons of copper and other metals locked in American infrastructure and consumer goods.
  
  

• Diversify: Move into rare earth recovery, cadmium from batteries, and high-value niche metals like cobalt.
  
  

Case Studies: Who’s Winning Already

• Eureka Recycling (Minneapolis): Benefiting from higher UBC prices, they’ve positioned themselves as domestic-first suppliers.
  
  

• EMR Metal Recycling: Building strategies to keep copper in the U.S. market, avoiding export risks.
  
  

• Integrated Operators: Those who invested early in sorting + processing are commanding premium prices.
  
  

The lesson? Those who moved early to rebrand from “waste handlers” to material suppliers are already banking profits.

Why This Matters for You

Most waste operators still see themselves as collectors. That mindset is outdated.

In Q4 2025, the winners will be the ones who:

• Speak the language of commodities, not trash.
  
  

• Lock in direct contracts with manufacturers, bypassing brokers.
  
  

• Deliver certified, high-quality materials that can substitute imports blocked by tariffs.
  

My Invitation to You

I’ve spent over 15 years in the trenches of waste and critical raw materials—from consulting for governments in Africa to helping U.S. operators unlock hidden profits. I’ve watched companies grow seven-figure revenues in under a year by simply repositioning themselves in the market.

Now, with tariffs peaking, wars raging, and demand exploding, the window of opportunity has never been wider.

👉 Book a Waste Assessment Consultation with me today.
In 20 minutes, I’ll map exactly how much money you’re leaving on the table and how to capture it before your competitors do.

📅 Click here to schedule your consultation now

Final Thought

The world is entering an era where trash is the new goldmine. While politicians argue and wars destabilize, one thing is certain: America needs raw materials—and the cheapest, fastest, tariff-free source is sitting in your trucks, bins, and yards.

The only question is: will you keep calling it waste—or will you sell it as wealth?

To Your Success

Sam Barrili
The Waste Management Alchemist